If I Were Governor of New Hampshire: Priority #1 — Fix the Housing Crisis

Opinion · By Dexter Dow

This column is a thought experiment. Dexter Dow is not a candidate for governor or any other office. The plan below answers the question in the headline: what would a governor do first about housing?

New Hampshire is an improbable mix of postcard towns, stubborn independence, and quietly ambitious people. It’s also a place where the cost and scarcity of homes are slowly strangling opportunity. If I had the governor’s pen on Day One, Priority Number One would be simple to say and hard to do: fix the housing crisis—with a full-court press on supply, affordability, and speed.

Housing isn’t a side quest. It’s the base layer for everything else—workforce, schools, small business, public safety, even the health of civic life. Without stable, attainable homes, the rest of the agenda—no matter how shiny—limps. Let’s map the problem with evidence (not vibes), lift up what’s working, borrow ruthlessly from other states’ successes, and build a New Hampshire plan that fits our towns as well as our mountains.

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The reality check: what the data say (not what slogans wish)

• Permitting is lagging and uneven. New Hampshire permitted 4,880 housing units in 2023—14% fewer than in 2022. Just nine municipalities (a quarter of our population) accounted for almost half of all permits, while 127 communities permitted ten or fewer units. Translation: a few places are pulling most of the weight, and many aren’t building at all. (NH Economy)
• We’re short—by a lot. New Hampshire Housing estimated in 2023 that the state needed ~23,500 more units to meet demand, and that almost 60,000 units are needed between 2020 and 2030 and nearly 90,000 between 2020 and 2040 (InDepthNH). That’s not a rounding error; that’s a generation’s worth of underbuilding. (New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute)
• Vacancy is tight. A vacancy rate of about 5 percent reflects a balanced rental market. New Hampshire’s statewide vacancy rate for two-bedroom apartments was 0.6 percent in mid-2023, down from 0.8 percent in 2019, which keeps rents stubborn. (New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute)
• Costs outpace paychecks. NHFPI’s analysis shows a typical household needed to spend about 49 percent of monthly income to purchase a median-priced home in 2024, which is a polite economist way of saying “nope.” (New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute)

This is the part where we resist magical thinking. The market is not going to fix itself while our zoning and permitting rules tell it to sit quietly in the corner.

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Why housing is the first domino

1. Workforce and growth: Employers can’t fill jobs if workers can’t live within a reasonable commute. Housing is the invisible throttle on economic growth. (Ask any hospital HR director hunting nurses.) (New Hampshire Housing)
2. Demographics and retention: Young adults, teachers, tradespeople, first-responders—if they’re priced out, the state ages faster and communities hollow out. The “brain drain” is often a rent check in disguise. (NHPBS)
3. Schools and civic life: Stable housing supports stable enrollment and volunteerism. NH Housing’s “From Homes to Classrooms” work debunks the myth that building homes swamps schools; reality is more nuanced. (YouTube)
4. Budget sanity: More homes—appropriately located—broaden the tax base, reduce sprawl costs, and lower per-capita infrastructure burden over time.

If a governor wants early wins that compound, start where the compounding begins.

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A hypothetical Day One (and a 12-month plan)

Executive Order #1: The Homes for New Hampshire Initiative. Goal: unlock, permit, and initiate construction on a pipeline sufficient to close at least one-third of the 2030 gap by the end of the first term—while protecting community character and investing in infrastructure.

First 90 days

• Create a Housing Strike Team (planners, permitting pros, finance, legal) to embed with municipalities that want help rewriting zoning, mapping sites, and moving projects. Think “FEMA for permits,” minus the disasters—unless you count three-hour zoning board meetings.
• Publish a Housing Scorecard every quarter: permits issued, units under construction, completions, vacancy, rent trends—by county and city/town. Sunlight focuses minds. (NH Economy)
• Launch Housing-Friendly Planning Grants: model ordinances, by-right checklists, ADU templates, “missing middle” pattern books, and small-town permitting playbooks (with legal review).
• Set fast-track targets: If a project meets state “workforce housing” criteria and local design standards, require an up-or-down decision in 60 days—with automatic referral to a state facilitation panel if the clock runs out.

Months 4–12: the legislative packet

• By-right “missing middle” statewide: Duplexes everywhere single-family is allowed; triplexes, fourplexes, townhomes, cottage courts, and ADUs in areas with water/sewer—or with pre-approved on-site solutions. Oregon showed this can be done while letting towns tailor details. (Oregon)
• Accessory Dwelling Units, simplified: One ADU by-right on any residential lot; a second where infrastructure allows. Remove parking minimums that turn a backyard cottage into a parking lot.
• Adaptive reuse & commercial-to-residential conversions: A one-stop state variance for mills, offices, and malls converting to housing with clear life-safety and energy rules.
• Infrastructure alignment: A small, performance-based Housing Infrastructure Fund (water/sewer/broadband/streets) for towns adopting model codes and hitting production benchmarks.
• Down-payment and rental bridges: Expand targeted assistance for first-time buyers and workforce renters, paired with financial counseling and anti-displacement protections.
• Local control, real responsibility: Preserve local design standards and historic districts; tie flexible state money to measurable delivery (permits issued, units started).

That is the bones of a plan. But bones need muscle: finance, sites, and social license.

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What we build (and where)

Missing-middle and small-scale infill

New Hampshire doesn’t need wall-to-wall towers. We need more of everything in the middle: duplexes, triplexes, quads, small walk-ups, townhouses, cottage courts—near town centers, jobs, and transit. The state’s own data show more than half of 2023 permits were in multi-unit buildings; normalizing the “middle” finishes that job. (NH Economy)

Factory-built and modular

Utah’s case studies show how smaller lots and smaller homes lower costs when rules allow them. Factory-built and modular homes are a separate idea worth testing here: we should pilot modular projects in at least five regions, with pre-approved designs and streamlined inspections. (American Enterprise Institute)

Adaptive reuse

From mills in Manchester/Nashua to empty big-box shells, conversions can deliver units fast without starting from dirt. A state “reuse code navigator” helps small developers clear the life-safety maze without compromising on it.

Rural reality

For small towns, the play isn’t a 200-unit complex; it’s 10 here, 20 there—plus ADUs—so the school keeps a third-grade class and the local business can hire. The state’s planning grants should privilege shovel-ready, small-scale projects in rural places.

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The financing toolkit (keep it lean, leverage hard)

• Housing Infrastructure Fund: competitive grants for water/sewer/broadband/complete streets that unlock housing in designated growth areas.
• Public-private partnerships: ground-leases on state-owned parcels; density bonuses or tax-increment finance where towns opt in.
• “Naturally affordable” pathways: smaller units, shared walls, and fewer parking mandates lower costs without a dollar of subsidy—then target limited subsidies where they matter most.
• Down-payment and rent-gap supports: expand with guardrails and sunset reviews to ensure we’re buying outcomes, not headlines.
• Performance bonds and claw-backs: incentives tied to units delivered, not press releases held.

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Accountability, but actually

Every reform needs a scoreboard. Quarterly report cards—by municipality—tracking:

• permits issued, days to decision, appeals resolved
• units started/completed by type (ADU, duplex, small multi, large multi, conversion)
• vacancy, rent and price trends, cost-burden rates
• infrastructure dollars awarded and online dates

And then do the hard thing: reallocate infrastructure money next cycle toward the places that perform. Friendly competition works.

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Lessons from elsewhere (and why they fit us)

Oregon: re-legalizing the “missing middle”

In 2019, Oregon passed HB 2001, requiring cities of certain sizes to allow duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, townhouses, and cottage clusters in zones that previously allowed only single-family homes. It paired state direction with local flexibility and pushed cities to update codes on a deadline. The result wasn’t instant utopia—housing moves on geologic time—but it changed the rules of the game statewide. (Oregon)

Policy take-away for New Hampshire: we can preserve our beloved local design standards while shifting the default from “no” to “by-right yes” for small-scale, human-scale homes across most residential land.

Utah: small lots, ADUs, and modular pragmatism

Utah’s “abundant housing” work highlights how lot splits, ADUs, and smaller homes can double supply in established neighborhoods without bulldozers. In one Lehi neighborhood of 15,000-square-foot lots, the study finds that lot splits or detached ADUs “could effectively double the housing supply while also increasing property tax revenue for the local government.” Utah’s politics aren’t New Hampshire’s, but the land-use math is universal: less land per unit + by-right rules = more attainable homes. (American Enterprise Institute)

Policy take-away: pilot “lot-split plus ADU” overlays around New Hampshire’s village centers and pair them with modular build pilots to deliver units in months, not years.

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Addressing the usual objections (with respect and receipts)

“This will ruin our town’s character.”
A duplex behind a picket fence doesn’t erase a town green. In fact, “middle” buildings are how our historic neighborhoods were built in the first place. Oregon’s experience shows cities can adopt design standards and still allow more neighbors. (McMinnville Oregon)

“Schools will be overwhelmed.”
NH Housing’s analysis finds common fears are overstated; the link between new homes and sudden school spikes is weak, especially for smaller, in-town units. Also: kids are a feature, not a bug—healthy schools need families. (YouTube)

“Traffic will be unbearable.”
Building near existing centers and jobs shortens commutes and supports walkable trips. More ADUs and infill can mean fewer 30-mile drives from the hinterlands.

“Developers will just build luxury.”
Some will. But rules shape outcomes: permit modest footprints, reduce parking minimums, legalize duplex/quad/cottage clusters, and you make it easier to pencil “workforce-price” units. Where subsidy is needed, reserve it for truly below-market rents or first-time buyers.

“Local control!”
Local control is healthiest when it’s about how we build, not a permanent veto on whether we build anything at all. The state can set fair, floor-level expectations and still celebrate New Hampshire’s thousand local flavors.

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Evidence-backed tactics New Hampshire should deploy

1. By-right missing-middle statewide (duplexes everywhere, more in serviced areas), patterned on Oregon’s HB 2001 approach but tuned to our towns. (Oregon)
2. Two ADUs by-right where infrastructure allows; remove redundant parking mandates.
3. Scorecard + “fast-track 60” rule for qualifying projects; if you meet the checklist, you get a decision in 60 days.
4. Housing Infrastructure Fund aimed at water/sewer/broadband to unlock sites; reward towns that hit targets.
5. Conversion code navigator for mills/malls/offices turning residential.
6. Modular pilot program (pre-approved plans, factory inspections) to cut build times and risk.
7. Down-payment + rent-gap bridges with guardrails, sunsets, and annual ROI reviews.
8. Anti-displacement tools: right-to-cure on late rent with assistance, limited “just-cause” for subsidized units, relocation support when conversions displace tenants.
9. Rural-scale playbooks and grants for 10–40-unit infill and ADU sweeps.

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What success looks like in four years

• Visible construction in at least 50 municipalities that previously built almost nothing, documented by the scorecard. (NH Economy)
• Vacancy nudging up toward a balanced 5 percent statewide; rent growth leveling; ownership within reach for median-income families again. (New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute)
• Completions tilted toward “middle” forms (duplex/quad/townhome/cottage) and reuse projects, not just large complexes.
• Commutes shorter, tax bases healthier, with conversions increasing downtown foot traffic and small-business revenue.
• Less heat in public meetings because small, predictable, by-right projects become normal, not exotic.

Will everyone love every project? No. But we won’t keep our kids, nurses, and mechanics by wishing.

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Watch and learn: videos on New Hampshire housing

• The Future of Housing in NH (NH Business Review panel): financing, multifamily realities, and manufactured housing innovations. Great context on what’s working and what isn’t. (YouTube)

• From Homes to Classrooms (New Hampshire Housing webinar): evidence that housing growth doesn’t automatically swamp local schools. Use this to counter common myths. (YouTube)

• Carsey Policy Hour: How Economically Secure Are NH Residents? (UNH Carsey School of Public Policy): a session on affordability and economic security grounded in NH research. (YouTube)

• NHPBS “Communities & Consequences” project: the demographic squeeze, workforce shortages, and the role of local policy in rebuilding vibrant, welcoming towns. (NHPBS)

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The politics (because governing isn’t SimCity)

No governor operates in a vacuum, and some of this agenda is already law. In July 2025, Gov. Kelly Ayotte signed bills that allow detached accessory dwelling units (HB 577), require towns to allow multifamily housing in commercial zones with some restrictions (HB 631), and bar towns from requiring more than one parking space per residential unit (SB 284). (NHPR) In 2026, the House Housing Committee voted 16-0 against a bill to repeal the ADU law, and lawmakers amended the commercial-zone law in HB 1010, which gives planning boards more discretion and which Gov. Ayotte signed July 15, 2026 (Chapter 319). (Manchester Ink Link) That context matters: any serious housing push will need bipartisan buy-in and municipal partners who want help, not scolding. The good news? Housing is popular—when people see the benefits.

Related: New Hampshire Authorized 18,015 New Homes in 1986. In 2025 It Authorized 5,030, Its Most Since 2006. and SB 564 Bars New Hampshire Towns From Road-Length Limits That Impede Development, Starting April 1, 2027

The way through is coalition-building: employers who need workers, hospitals who need nurses, firefighters who can’t afford to live in the towns they protect, school leaders who want steady enrollment, environmental stewards who prefer infill to sprawl. That’s a New Hampshire coalition if I’ve ever seen one.

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A closing thought

We can keep pretending that the invisible hand will sort this out while we clutch 20th-century rules. Or we can write new rules that let neighbors live near the lives they’re building. If I were governor, I’d choose the latter—on Day One.

Build more. Build better. Build now. Not to chase growth for growth’s sake, but to keep New Hampshire New Hampshire: free, fair, and full of possibility.

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Sources & further reading (selected)

• New Hampshire Housing Supply Update (2024) — permits, trends, distribution across municipalities. (NH Economy)
• NHFPI: Housing shortage & affordability — demand gap and cost burdens through 2040. (New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute)
• 60,000 housing units needed in NH by 2030, 90,000 by 2040 — coverage of New Hampshire Housing’s 2023 Statewide Housing Needs Assessment. (InDepthNH)
• NHFPI: New Hampshire Policy Points 2025: Housing — two-bedroom vacancy 0.6 percent in mid-2023; about 5 percent marks a balanced market. (New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute)
• NH Housing Needs Assessment (2023) — long-range projections (~90,000 units by 2040). New Hampshire Housing, 2023 Statewide Housing Needs Assessment (April 2023).

Comparative case studies

• Oregon HB 2001 (2019) — statewide missing-middle legalization (duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, cottage clusters, townhouses). (Oregon)
• Oregon implementation & bipartisan dynamics — lessons for other states. (The Century Foundation)
• Utah housing abundance case studies — lot splits, smaller lots, townhomes, and ADUs. (American Enterprise Institute)
• Utah long-range shortage — policy stakes over 30 years. (The Salt Lake Tribune)

Video resources

• The Future of Housing in NH (panel; NH Business Review channel). (YouTube)
• From Homes to Classrooms (webinar; New Hampshire Housing). (YouTube)
• Carsey School Policy Hour (NHFPI economic security focus). (YouTube)
• NHPBS “Communities & Consequences” (project hub & press release). (NHPBS)

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Corrections: Granite State Report corrects verified errors promptly and appends a dated note identifying what changed and when. The corrections policy and the corrections register are public, and correction notes are never removed.