New Hampshire’s Turnout Trailed the Nation’s in Every Midterm From 1982 Through 1998. It Topped the National Rate in All 13 Federal Elections From 2000 Through 2024.

Independent New Hampshire Journalism · Northfield, NH

A Census Bureau survey and official vote counts agree on the turn. New Hampshire wrote Election Day registration at the polls into law in 1994, which also left it outside the federal “motor voter” law. Neither record says how much of the change that law explains.

In the November 1986 election, 33.0 percent of New Hampshire residents eligible to vote cast a ballot for the top office on the ballot, by the official returns. The national rate was 38.1 percent. In 2014, another midterm, New Hampshire’s turnout was 48.0 percent and the nation’s was 36.6 percent.

Those official rates come from the University of Florida Election Lab, whose turnout files are compiled by Professor Michael McDonald. The lab divides the votes counted in each state by an estimate of the state’s voting-eligible population: residents 18 and older, minus noncitizens and, depending on state law, people barred from voting by a felony conviction. A second record, the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, asks a sample of households in November of each federal election year whether they voted. Its state tables report the share of voting-age citizens who said they did. Together the two records cover every federal general election from 1980 through 2024, 23 in all.

At both ends of that span the two records agree. Both put New Hampshire below the national rate in the 1984 presidential election and in each of the five midterms from 1982 through 1998. Both put it above the national rate in 1980, in 1996, and in all 13 federal general elections from 2000 through 2024. They split on 1988 and 1992. The official returns put New Hampshire ahead in both years; the survey put it behind by 2.4 points in 1988 and by a tenth of a point in 1992.

Twenty-three elections, two measures

The table below sets the two records side by side. The survey columns are the Census Bureau’s reported voting rates for citizens 18 and older. The official columns are Election Lab turnout rates. From 1998 on, they use the total number of ballots counted. The lab’s U.S. totals do not include a ballots-counted figure before 1998, so for 1980 through 1996 Granite State Report divided the votes cast for the highest office on the ballot by the lab’s eligible-population estimate, the same way for New Hampshire and for the nation.

On the official count, New Hampshire’s widest lead came in the 2012 presidential election, 70.7 percent to 58.6 percent, a gap of 12.1 points. Its widest midterm lead came in 2014, at 11.4 points. Its deepest deficit came in 1986, at 5.1 points. From 2000 through 2024, the narrowest lead came in the 2006 midterm: 1.8 points on the official count and 0.6 points in the survey.

The 1994 law

New Hampshire’s Election Day registration statute, RSA 654:7-a, is titled “Registering at the Polling Place; Election Day Registration.” Its source note begins with a 1994 session law, and the National Conference of State Legislatures dates the state’s same-day registration to 1994, House Bill 1506. Under the statute, a person who is eligible to vote but is not on the checklist may register at the polling place on Election Day, show the proof of eligibility state law requires, and vote in that election.

The timing mattered under federal law. The National Voter Registration Act of 1993, often called the motor voter law, requires states to let people register to vote for federal office when they apply for a driver’s license, by mail, and in person at designated offices. Section 20503(b) of Title 52 of the U.S. Code says the law does not apply to a state that, under a law in effect continuously on and after Aug. 1, 1994, had no voter registration requirement for federal elections or let all voters register at the polling place when voting in a general election for federal office. Polling-place registration also qualifies under a law enacted by that date that by its terms took effect when the federal act was enacted, so long as that law remains in effect. The Justice Department lists six exempt states: Idaho, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

The records do not show that the 1994 law moved turnout. New Hampshire’s rate stayed below the nation’s in the 1994 and 1998 midterms, rose above it in the 1996 presidential election, and stayed above it in every federal general election from 2000 through 2024. Neither the survey nor the official count attempts to say why turnout rises or falls in any state.

Reading the numbers

The two records measure different things. The Census Bureau says differences between official counts and its survey “may be a combination of an understatement of the official numbers and an overstatement in the CPS estimates.” Official counts can leave out ballots thrown out during counting, and the survey counts people who say they voted, including people who voted only in state or local races. The bureau also lists respondent misreporting as a source of error.

Before 1996, the bureau says, the survey “did not collect information on citizenship in a uniform way,” so its citizen rates for earlier years “should be interpreted with caution.” State estimates from the survey also carry sampling error, which the bureau documents separately. Survey gaps under a point, 0.5 in 1982, 0.1 in 1992 and 0.6 in 2006, should not be read as firm differences on the survey alone. The official count put New Hampshire behind by 1.0 point in 1982 and ahead by 8.0 points in 1992 and 1.8 points in 2006.

The base matters too. The Election Lab estimated that noncitizens made up 2.49 percent of New Hampshire’s voting-age population in 2024, against 8.20 percent nationally. Measured against all residents 18 and older rather than citizens, the survey’s 2024 gap widens from 6.6 points to 9.6 points, 68.9 percent to 59.3 percent. The lab’s eligible-population figures are estimates that it revises as new population data arrive, and its 2024 file is version 0.4, first published March 2, 2026.

What the record does not show

These figures cover federal general elections only. They do not cover New Hampshire’s presidential primary, state primaries, town meetings or local elections, and they say nothing about who voted or how. Turnout counts participation. By itself it does not measure how easy or hard it is to vote, or the accuracy of any count. For other Granite State Report data on the state’s elections, see the account of constitutional amendments that won a majority and failed and the comparison of residents per seat in the New Hampshire House.

— Granite State Report

Fact check

Editor’s note. Survey voting rates are drawn from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey historical voting tables A-1, A-3a and A-5a. Official turnout rates, vote counts, eligible-population estimates and noncitizen shares are drawn from the University of Florida Election Lab’s general election turnout files for 1980–2022 (version 1.2) and 2024 (version 0.4). Legal provisions are drawn from RSA 654:7-a, 52 U.S.C. § 20503, the Justice Department’s National Voter Registration Act page and the National Conference of State Legislatures’ same-day registration page. Gaps, comparisons and official rates for 1980–1996 are Granite State Report arithmetic from those figures.

Corrections: Granite State Report corrects verified errors promptly and appends a dated note identifying what changed and when. The corrections policy and the corrections register are public, and correction notes are never removed.