Independent New Hampshire Journalism · Northfield, NHCorrection, Sept. 19, 2026, 2:45 p.m. EDT: An earlier version of this column said the three Russian MiG-31s that entered Estonian airspace on September 19, 2025, were armed with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, and it called $33 trillion a U.S. "deficit." Reporting on the incursion did not establish that the jets carried Kinzhals; a NATO source who first said so later said only that the jets were capable of carrying them (Fox News). The $33 trillion figure was the national debt in September 2023, not a deficit; total public debt was about $37.5 trillion on September 19, 2025 (U.S. Treasury, Debt to the Penny). The column also misdescribed an Atlantic Council issue brief as academic research and misstated the finding of a 2024 journal article. Those passages have been corrected.
When three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated Estonian airspace for 12 minutes on September 19, 2025, everyone focused on the military threat.
I see something different. Putin got exactly what he wanted.
The aircraft choice tells the real story. These weren't random aircraft testing boundaries. A version of the MiG-31 is Russia's launch platform for the Kinzhal, a missile with a reported range of 1,500 to 2,000 kilometers, or roughly 930 to 1,240 miles (CSIS Missile Threat). Whether these three jets carried Kinzhals was never confirmed. The message did not depend on it.
That message was crystal clear.
But here's where conventional analysis misses the point. NATO's response was textbook perfect. Italian F-35s intercepted and escorted them out. Estonia filed diplomatic protests. Everything by the book.
Yet this was the fifth violation of Estonian airspace in 2025, and Russia keeps escalating.
NATO faces a deterrence paradox. We're strong enough to prevent Russia from starting actual war, but apparently not strong enough to stop them from demonstrating they could.
The mere notion that they could is the problem NATO faces.
This puts Estonia in a constant state of fear and angst. Psychological warfare. Putin's signature playbook.
But Estonia isn't backing down. They're calling for increased pressure on Moscow, more political and economic sanctions.
Putin wants to be sanctioned.
Think about it. China and Russia aren't happy with American governance, especially a national debt that passed $37 trillion in 2025. They want to break from the dollar and create a new world currency.
Putin has said as much himself. In June 2024 he boasted that the share of Russian export payments made in the "toxic" currencies of unfriendly states had halved, and promised, "We will increase the use of national currencies in foreign trade settlements."
These airspace violations aren't about Estonia at all. They're about creating pretexts for economic warfare against the US financial system.
Every sanction gives Russia and China more justification to decouple from the dollar system entirely. Putin is baiting NATO into overreacting with sanctions that serve his larger plan.
NATO's current strategy walks right into this trap. An Atlantic Council issue brief concluded in February 2025 that NATO's eastern flank deployments "amount to more of a trip-wire force rather than one designed for a strategy of defense by denial."
A 2024 study in Defense & Security Analysis argued that NATO's conventional deterrent posture in the Baltics is "rooted in Cold War thinking," and that Russia's hybrid tactics, from sabotage to cyber operations, call for an updated strategy. That posture was not built for Putin's provocations.
The solution requires abandoning predictable responses. I'd give Putin an ultimatum and final warning before serious military actions are taken.
End of story.
But the real breakthrough thinking goes further. Instead of falling into Putin's sanctions trap, invite him to the table at NATO.
I'd rather have my enemies inside the tent pissing out than outside pissing in.
This flips Putin's entire strategy. No more sanctions to justify dedollarization. No more provocations to test resolve.
Just direct engagement that forces Russia to choose between genuine diplomacy and transparent aggression.
Sometimes the most radical solution is the most obvious one.
Corrections: Granite State Report corrects verified errors promptly and appends a dated note identifying what changed and when. The corrections policy and the corrections register are public, and correction notes are never removed.
