Did the Baby Boomers Screw the Millennials? A Data Check for the Granite State

How Policies Have Systematically Burdened Millennials

Opinion · By Dexter Dow

YES!—but not in the cartoon-villain way the memes suggest. Millennials weren’t personally kneecapped by grandpa at Thanksgiving. They were boxed out by a long run of policy choices that overwhelmingly rewarded existing asset owners (read: older, already-housed Americans) and underinvested in the things young workers rely on to build a life: affordable housing, predictable education costs, childcare, and stable social insurance. Meanwhile, the political system amplified the preferences of older homeowners who reliably turn out to vote, especially in low-salience local elections where housing rules are made. The result is a structural gauntlet. Let’s walk it, receipts in hand.

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The Scoreboard: Where Millennials Start Behind

Wealth concentration by generation. The Federal Reserve’s Distributional Financial Accounts show boomers still hold the largest slice of national wealth; millennials’ share is rising but remains well below boomers’—even as millennials have entered peak earning years. That’s not a conspiracy; it’s compounding and timing—but it’s also policy. (Federal Reserve)

Housing affordability went off a cliff. Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies called the 2024 market what it was: millions of would-be buyers “priced out of the market by high home prices and interest rates,” while the number of cost-burdened renters hit an all-time high. Their 2024 report documents a broad affordability crunch despite a multifamily building surge. (Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies)

Homeownership for young adults is lower than prior cohorts. Under-35 homeownership sagged in 2024, and even older millennials trail prior generations at the same age. Census’ long-run Housing Vacancy Survey series shows under-35 ownership well below every older age group. (Census.gov)

Student debt is a heavier millstone. Federal student loans outstanding totaled about $1.72 trillion, owed on behalf of 42.6 million recipients, as of March 31, 2026, up from $1.64 trillion at the end of 2024, according to Federal Student Aid’s portfolio summary. (Federal Student Aid)

Pay didn’t keep up with productivity. Since the late 1970s, worker pay decoupled from productivity growth. The Economic Policy Institute’s Productivity–Pay Tracker shows productivity up 93.7% from late 1979 to mid-2026 while typical workers’ hourly pay rose 32.7%: productivity grew 2.9 times as much as pay. That gap compounds the difficulties of saving for down payments, tuition, and childcare. (Economic Policy Institute)

Childcare is structurally unaffordable. Child Care Aware reports prices still rising; Treasury’s analysis explains why the market fails: families can’t afford true costs, providers can’t cover them, and workers are paid poverty wages—so capacity thins and prices climb. (Child Care Aware® of America)

Climate costs are landing. NOAA recorded 27 separate U.S. billion-dollar disasters in 2024, one of the worst years on record; from 1980 through 2024 the tally reached 403 events and more than $2.9 trillion in CPI-adjusted losses. NOAA retired the database in 2025 with no updates beyond 2024. Those are real bills that younger taxpayers will shoulder through insurance, taxes, and rebuilding. (Climate.gov)

Social insurance is flashing yellow. The 2025 Social Security Trustees project the combined OASDI trust funds to hit depletion in the mid-2030s without changes (benefits would continue, but across-the-board cuts would kick in absent reform). Medicare’s Hospital Insurance trust fund faces depletion in 2033. The 2026 Trustees Reports, released June 9, 2026, kept both dates: 2034 for the combined Social Security funds, when 83% of scheduled benefits would be payable, and 2033 for Medicare’s hospital fund. These are policy solvency problems left to younger workers to solve. (Social Security)

Political power skews older and more homeowner. In 2024, Pew’s validated voter study shows the oldest Americans continued to vote at much higher rates than the youngest; the Census confirms a large participation gap by age. That turnout advantage is even bigger in local elections, where homeowners—disproportionately older—show up to defend restrictive zoning. (Pew Research Center)

Short version: the runway to “adulting” (housing, degree, kids, safety net) has been lengthened and mined. For the New Hampshire numbers, see Millennials Didn’t Kill Marriage. New Hampshire Priced It at $158,000. That’s the context behind the feeling of being… well, screwed.

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How We Got Here (Policy, Not Personal Villainy)

Housing: scarcity by design. For decades, local rules (minimum lot sizes, apartment bans, parking mandates) throttled supply in the places with jobs. When mortgage rates spiked, we froze the resale market while builders raced to catch up. Unsurprisingly, affordability cratered and first-time buyers fell to historic lows; NAR’s 2024 profile found first-time buyers made up just 24% of buyers, with a median first-time buyer age of 38; its 2025 profile put the share at a record-low 21% and the median age at 40. That’s a symptom of policy-created scarcity, not individual fecklessness. (NAR)

Tax code: we subsidized asset owners. The mortgage-interest deduction (MID), especially post-TCJA when fewer itemize, disproportionately benefits higher-income homeowners. Step-up in basis wipes out capital gains at death, preserving intergenerational fortunes. Taken together, these features tilt toward older, wealthier households relative to younger wage earners trying to buy in. (Congress.gov)

Higher ed finance: volatility and debt. Public appropriations have seesawed since the Great Recession; net tuition burdens varied widely, but the upshot for many millennials was paying more out-of-pocket and borrowing heavily to hedge uncertain state support. (SHEEO) A 2024 Brookings analysis by Adam Looney found that net tuition stayed relatively flat over three decades while student borrowing tripled, a sign that loans increasingly cover living costs as well as tuition.

Labor: the productivity–pay divorce. When bargaining power eroded and corporate governance prioritized buybacks and shareholder returns, typical wages lagged. That shows up in the EPI pay–productivity gap and in BLS real-earnings series: millennials entered the workforce just as that gap hardened. (Economic Policy Institute)

Climate and insurance: hidden taxes. Rising disaster frequency and scale translate into higher premiums, deductibles, and public rebuilds. Millennials didn’t cause zoning that pushes building into the wildland-urban interface or keep emissions high for decades; they do get the bill. (Climate.gov)

Political demography: who shows up decides. Older homeowners consistently outvote younger renters, especially in off-cycle local elections where development is decided. That structural fact locked in scarcity. (Boston University)

None of this requires a moral indictment of a birth cohort. It does demand candor about the results.

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Where the Meme Overreaches

Millennials aren’t doomed—and many are catching up in wealth. The 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances shows unusually large gains for younger families off the pandemic cycle; St. Louis Fed economists found that in 2022 older millennials’ median wealth was 37% above expectations, after sitting 34% below expectations in 2016. Timing matters: late-cycle asset booms help. But starting lines still differ. (Federal Reserve)

“Wealth transfer will fix it” is uneven. Yes, analysts project $84 trillion in U.S. wealth will pass through 2045, mostly from boomers. But inheritances are highly skewed; many millennials will see little or nothing. Counting on bequests is not a policy. (Cerulli Associates)

The real divide is assets vs. wages, not merely old vs. young. Plenty of boomers rent, lack savings, and struggle on fixed incomes. Plenty of millennials (especially those who bought in the 2010s) are fine. The strongest explanatory variable is whether you owned assets in the upcycle and live in a place that builds. The “generational war” frame is emotionally satisfying but analytically sloppy.

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How to Un-Screw the On-Ramp (Things That Actually Work)

You want concrete fixes. Here’s a targeted package that would shorten the runway for younger households without punching retirees in the wallet.

1) Flood the zone with homes (supply, not slogans).

• Legalize more homes near jobs: end apartment bans on residential land, reduce minimum lot sizes, and nix mandatory parking near transit. Pair with by-right approvals and strict shot-clocks to kill delay games. The affordability literature is blunt: land-use constraints raise prices. (See JCHS for the affordability context; use Atlanta Fed’s HOAM to track progress.) (Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies)
• Builder incentives that scale: density bonuses for below-market units; tax-increment financing tied to housing output; federal carrots for local zoning reform.

2) Aim first-time buyer help at supply, not bidding wars.
Temporary demand credits in tight markets just push prices up. If you offer buyer aid, pair it with supply triggers—e.g., credits only in metros adding housing at or above population growth; otherwise you’re feeding a price fire. (NAR’s first-time buyer share, 24% in its 2024 profile and a record-low 21% in its 2025 profile, underscores the need to focus on supply.) (NAR)

3) Make childcare a functioning market.
Treat it like infrastructure: stabilize supply with operating subsidies tied to quality standards, and cap copays as a share of income. Treasury’s report lays out why pure market provision fails; Child Care Aware shows prices outrunning family budgets and capacity still fragile. (U.S. Department of the Treasury)

4) Fix higher ed where it actually hurts.
Two levers work fastest for new cohorts:

• Guarantee last-dollar tuition-free community college (scales workforce programs; simple admin).
• Target borrowing at living costs with income-based repayment that auto-withholds a small, capped percentage above a threshold (and auto-forgives balances after a fixed term). Use the FSA portfolio dashboards to track delinquency by program and adjust. (Federal Student Aid)

5) Stop subsidizing scarcity.

• Phase out the MID and redirect savings to a neutral, first-home down-payment match for low- and moderate-income buyers—only in jurisdictions delivering housing targets. CRS shows MID’s benefits skew high-income; stop paying people to over-leverage in supply-starved markets. (Congress.gov)
• Tighten “step-up” on ultra-large estates (with exemptions for small businesses and farms) and redirect revenue to “baby bonds” or children’s savings accounts to narrow the wealth gap at birth. (Tax Policy Center)

6) Climate math that matches the invoices.
Hardening the grid, relocating the riskiest housing, and restoring natural buffers cost real money—but so do disaster bailouts. NOAA’s disaster record and 2024’s brutal totals are your line items; fund resilient building codes and buy-outs now to reduce the recurring tax bite later. (Climate.gov)

7) Lock in social insurance solvency now, gently.
The cheapest fix is the earliest fix. A balanced package could:

• Gradually lift or eliminate the taxable wage cap and
• Trim benefits slightly for the highest lifetime earners and
• Index the full retirement age to longevity at the top (while protecting blue-collar workers with lower life expectancy).
  Start small now; avoid bigger, uglier cuts in the 2030s. The Trustees’ annual summary is explicit about timelines; the 2026 reports put combined Social Security reserve depletion in 2034, when 83% of scheduled benefits would be payable. (Social Security)

8) Change who shows up.
Move local elections to even-year November dates to close the homeowner–renter turnout gap that shields exclusionary zoning; the political science on turnout disparities is clear. (Boston University)

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Pushback You’ll Hear—and the Rebuttal

“Millennials just don’t want it enough.” Spare me. When a median-income household can’t buy a median-priced home without spending well over 30% of income on housing costs—per the Atlanta Fed’s affordability monitor—the problem isn’t avocado toast; it’s math. (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

“But their wealth is rising fast lately.” True—and good. SCF 2022 shows big median gains for younger families. But catching a late-cycle tailwind doesn’t erase a decade of missed compounding from delayed homeownership, nor does it solve child-raising costs or social-insurance cliffs. (Federal Reserve)

“The Great Wealth Transfer will fix it.” For some households, yes. For many, no. The $84T number is real but lopsided. Policy should not assume a bequest bailout. (Cerulli Associates)

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Bottom Line

Did boomers “f***” millennials? The system did—and older, asset-owning voters had both the means and turnout to keep that system in place. That’s not a personal failing; it’s political economy. The fix isn’t envy or fatalism. It’s boringly specific reforms that make homes buildable, childcare affordable, degrees predictable, pay share fairer, and social insurance sustainable. The country got richer. The returns went to assets. Rebalance toward work and new entrants.

Millennials don’t need a cultural apology; they need permits, portable benefits, and public math that adds up. Start there, and the memes will take care of themselves.

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Sources & Further Reading

• Federal Reserve: Distributional Financial Accounts & SCF (wealth by generation; 2022 family finances; DFA dashboards). (Federal Reserve)
• Housing Affordability & Homeownership: Harvard JCHS State of the Nation’s Housing 2024; U.S. Census HVS (homeownership by age); JCHS cohort projections; Atlanta Fed HOAM. (Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies)
• Student Loans & Higher Ed Finance: FSA Data Center; SHEEO State Higher Education Finance 2024 summary; Brookings (Looney) on borrowing vs. net tuition. (Federal Student Aid)
• Pay vs. Productivity: Economic Policy Institute series; BLS earnings & productivity portals. (Economic Policy Institute)
• Childcare: Child Care Aware 2024; U.S. Treasury Economics of Child Care Supply. (Child Care Aware® of America)
• Tax Code Tilt: CRS on the Mortgage-Interest Deduction; TPC brief on step-up in basis. (Congress.gov)
• Climate Costs: NOAA/NCEI Billion-Dollar Disasters (retired in 2025; data archived through 2024); Climate.gov on 2024 events. (NOAA retirement notice)
• Social Insurance: 2025 and 2026 Trustees’ summaries for Social Security & Medicare. (Social Security)
• Turnout & Representation: Pew on 2024 turnout; Census voting/registration tables 2024; “Gray Vote” working paper; research on homeownership and local election turnout. (Pew Research Center)

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Corrections: Granite State Report corrects verified errors promptly and appends a dated note identifying what changed and when. The corrections policy and the corrections register are public, and correction notes are never removed.