How decades of hostility, a brutal crackdown on Iranian protesters, failed nuclear talks, and a calculated gamble by Washington and Jerusalem plunged the Middle East into its most consequential conflict since the Iraq War — and why New Hampshire families are already feeling the fallout at the gas pump, in the stock market, and around the kitchen table.
By Granite State Report
One week ago today, in the early morning hours of February 28, the United States and Israel launched the largest joint military operation in the history of the two countries’ alliance. Code-named Operation Epic Fury, the campaign opened with nearly 900 precision strikes across Iran in under 12 hours, targeting missile batteries, air defense networks, military command centers, and — most consequentially — the compound of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself.
Khamenei was killed. His wife, Mansoureh Khojasteh Bagherzadeh, died of injuries two days later. Dozens of senior Iranian officials and military commanders perished alongside them. In one eight-minute video posted to Truth Social at 2:30 a.m. on February 28, President Donald Trump announced the purpose of the operation: regime change.
Seven days later, the war rages on with no ceasefire in sight. Iran has responded with hundreds of ballistic missiles and thousands of drones targeting Israel, U.S. bases across the Persian Gulf, and civilian infrastructure in Arab states from Dubai to Doha. Six American service members are dead. Over 1,300 people have been killed in Iran. Oil prices have surged past $90 a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint for 20 percent of the world’s oil supply — is effectively closed. And at gas stations from Laconia to Littleton, New Hampshire drivers are watching prices climb by the day.
This is the comprehensive story of how it happened, why it happened, and what comes next.
I. Four Decades of Mutual Hostility
The roots of this conflict reach back nearly half a century to the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and the ensuing hostage crisis that defined U.S.-Iran relations for a generation. Since that rupture, the two nations have engaged in a cold war of sanctions, proxy conflicts, and intermittent direct confrontations that never quite boiled over into all-out war — until now.
Through the 1980s, Washington backed Iraq against Iran in a devastating eight-year war. Tehran responded by building a network of proxy forces — Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shia militias in Iraq — that came to be known as the Axis of Resistance. These groups served as Iran’s strategic depth, projecting power across the Middle East while providing deniability against direct confrontation with the United States and Israel.
The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, represented the most significant diplomatic breakthrough in that long history of enmity. Iran agreed to curb its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. But in 2018, during his first term, President Trump withdrew from the agreement, imposing a “maximum pressure” campaign of sanctions that cratered Iran’s economy without producing a replacement deal. Iran responded by gradually ramping up its uranium enrichment, pushing toward weapons-grade levels.
The shadow war turned deadly in January 2020, when Trump ordered the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force and the architect of Iran’s regional proxy network. That killing, more than any single event, set the trajectory that would lead to February 28, 2026.
II. The Unraveling: October 7 to the Twelve-Day War
The October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel and the ensuing Gaza war accelerated the dismantling of Iran’s proxy network. Over the following 18 months, Israel systematically weakened the Axis of Resistance: assassinating Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July 2024, killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and IRGC commander Abbas Nilforoushan in Lebanon in September 2024, and exchanging direct strikes with Iran in both April and October 2024. In the October exchange, Israel destroyed nearly all of Iran’s Russian-supplied S-300 air defense systems, exposing Tehran’s most critical military assets to future attack.
Then came the Twelve-Day War. On June 13, 2025, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion — a massive surprise strike involving more than 200 fighter jets hitting over 100 Iranian nuclear facilities, military bases, and key infrastructure. The United States entered the conflict on June 22, using bunker-buster munitions on Iran’s underground nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. A fragile ceasefire was brokered on June 24.
The war exposed devastating weaknesses in Iran’s military posture. Its air defenses had already been degraded. Its missile salvos against Israel, while extensive, caused limited damage. Russia and China, despite years of diplomatic courtship by Tehran, offered only symbolic support. The Foreign Policy Research Institute later assessed that the war “accelerated the regime’s loss of strategic coherence” and left Iran vulnerable to future crises.
Those crises were not long in arriving.
III. The Iranian Uprising and the January Massacres
On December 28, 2025, protests erupted across Iran. Initially sparked by the collapse of the rial, soaring inflation, and chronic shortages linked to international sanctions and the economic damage of the Twelve-Day War, the demonstrations rapidly expanded into the largest popular uprising since the 1979 revolution, spreading to more than 100 cities. Shopkeepers closed their stalls. Students took to the streets. Slogans shifted from economic grievances to explicit calls for regime change, with demonstrators waving the pre-revolutionary Lion and Sun flag and chanting demands for the restoration of the monarchy.
The regime’s response was ferocious. Supreme Leader Khamenei personally ordered security forces to crush the protests “by any means necessary,” according to Iran International and multiple former Iranian officials. On January 8 and 9, the IRGC and Basij forces unleashed what Amnesty International called the deadliest crackdown in decades of its research on Iran. Security forces used live ammunition, shotguns, mounted machine guns, and drones against demonstrators. Witnesses described scenes of mass carnage — blood-covered streets, hospitals overwhelmed with gunshot victims, morgues overflowing.
“In the Narmak neighborhood, they shot and killed at least five or six people in front of us.” — Eyewitness account provided to Amnesty International, January 2026
The regime simultaneously imposed the longest internet blackout in the country’s history, severing communication between Iranian citizens and the outside world for weeks. The death toll from the crackdown remains deeply contested, a fact that has itself become part of the political battlefield.
The Death Toll Dispute
The true scale of the January massacres may never be precisely known, given the internet blackout and the regime’s systematic concealment of evidence. Estimates vary enormously:
| Source | Estimated Death Toll |
|---|---|
| Iranian Government (official) | 3,117 |
| Iran Human Rights (Norway-based) | 3,428+ |
| HRANA (U.S.-based activists) | 7,007 confirmed; 11,744 under review |
| UN Special Rapporteur on Iran | Possibly exceeding 20,000 |
| The Sunday Times / Iranian doctors network | 16,500 – 18,000 |
| Iran International (leaked IRGC documents) | 36,500+ |
| President Trump (State of the Union) | 32,000 |
Al Jazeera and other outlets have noted that some of the higher estimates have been used to build public support for military intervention. The Associated Press has stated it has been unable to independently verify any of the figures due to the communications blackout.
Tens of thousands were detained. Iran’s judiciary ordered prosecutors to show “no leniency” and to expedite trials. Coerced confessions of detained teenagers were broadcast on state television. The European Union designated the IRGC as a terrorist organization in response. Trump repeatedly threatened military action if the killings continued, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly claimed Washington had engineered a dollar shortage to send the rial into freefall — a remarkable admission that the United States had deliberately destabilized Iran’s economy to foment unrest.
IV. The Last Chance for Diplomacy
Even as the streets of Tehran ran with blood in January, the machinery of diplomacy ground forward. On February 6, the United States and Iran held indirect talks in Muscat, Oman, mediated by Omani foreign minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi. The nuclear-focused discussions were characterized by both sides as a “good start,” but the gap between their positions was vast: Washington demanded that Iran end all uranium enrichment, while Tehran insisted on its “inalienable right” to enrich.
The talks continued through February. On February 25 — just three days before the strikes began — Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi publicly stated that a “historic opportunity” to reach an agreement was “within reach.” On February 27, Oman’s foreign minister announced what appeared to be a breakthrough: Iran had agreed to never stockpile enriched uranium and to full IAEA verification, and had further agreed to irreversibly downgrade its existing enriched uranium to the lowest possible level.
But U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff dismissed the Iranian position, stating that Tehran had opened recent talks by insisting on its right to enrich and had boasted that its 460 kilograms of 60-percent enriched uranium could produce 11 nuclear bombs. By that point, American intelligence sources were already telling Reuters that the U.S. military was preparing for a broad, weeks-long sustained campaign targeting Iran’s state and security infrastructure.
The diplomatic window, if it ever truly existed, had slammed shut.
V. February 28: Operation Epic Fury
At approximately 1:15 a.m. Eastern time on February 28, the operation began.
February 24
During his State of the Union address, Trump accuses Iran of reviving efforts to build nuclear weapons, calls its ambitions “sinister,” and warns the U.S. is prepared to act.
February 27
Oman announces a diplomatic “breakthrough.” Hours later, U.S. officials tell Reuters the military is preparing a broad campaign. CIA intelligence indicates Khamenei will attend a meeting the following morning.
February 28, ~1:15 AM ET
U.S. and Israeli forces launch Operation Epic Fury — nearly 900 strikes in 12 hours targeting Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah. Supreme Leader Khamenei is killed in a strike on his compound.
February 28, 2:30 AM ET
Trump posts an eight-minute video on Truth Social announcing the objective: regime change. He urges IRGC members to surrender or face “certain death.”
February 28 – March 1
Iran retaliates within hours, launching Operation True Promise IV — hundreds of missiles and drones targeting Israel, U.S. bases across the Gulf, and civilian infrastructure in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
March 1
First U.S. casualties confirmed: a drone strikes a port in Kuwait, killing five Army reservists from the 103rd Sustainment Command. A sixth soldier is later recovered from the site. Iran effectively closes the Strait of Hormuz.
March 2
Hezbollah enters the war, launching missiles into northern Israel from Lebanon. Israel responds with strikes on Beirut. Iranian attacks hit Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha, and Beersheba. The U.S. Embassy in Kuwait is struck. Qatar shoots down two Iranian bombers. Kuwait’s air defenses accidentally down three U.S. F-15E Strike Eagles in a friendly-fire incident.
March 3 – 4
Israel bombs Iran’s state broadcaster (IRIB) headquarters and parliament building. Israel also strikes Iran’s Assembly of Experts as members meet to elect a new supreme leader. The U.S. torpedoes an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka. Senate votes 47-53 to reject the war powers resolution.
March 5
House narrowly rejects war powers resolution, 212-219. Defense Secretary Hegseth says the war could last eight weeks, double the president’s initial estimate.
March 6 – 7
U.S. Central Command reports striking more than 3,000 targets in Iran, destroying 43 Iranian warships. Iran’s President Pezeshkian delivers a televised address vowing Iran will never surrender. Oil surpasses $90/barrel. Trump demands “unconditional surrender.” Tehran’s Mehrabad airport is struck and set ablaze.
VI. The Toll: By the Numbers
As the conflict enters its second week, the human and economic costs are staggering and still mounting.
| Metric | Figure | Source / Notes |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. military deaths | 6 | All Army reservists, 103rd Sustainment Command |
| U.S. military seriously wounded | 18+ | CENTCOM, as of March 3 |
| Iranian civilian and military deaths | 1,332+ | Al Jazeera tracker, as of March 7 |
| Israeli civilian deaths | 11+ | Israeli emergency services |
| Lebanese deaths (renewed Israeli strikes) | 217+ | Lebanon Ministry of Public Health |
| UAE foreign worker deaths | 3 | UAE authorities |
| Displaced persons (across Middle East) | 330,000+ | UN estimate |
| U.S. strikes on Iranian targets | 3,000+ | CENTCOM |
| Iranian warships destroyed | 43 | CENTCOM |
| Brent crude oil price (March 7) | ~$92.69/barrel | Up ~27% from pre-conflict levels |
| U.S. gasoline price (national avg.) | $3.41/gallon | AAA, up $0.43 in one week |
| U.S. diesel price | $4.51/gallon | AAA, up $0.75 in one week |
VII. The Constitutional Battle in Congress
The war has reignited one of the oldest and most consequential debates in American governance: who has the power to take the nation into armed conflict?
President Trump launched the strikes without seeking congressional authorization, notifying Congress after the fact under the War Powers Act with a letter to Senate President Pro Tempore Chuck Grassley stating that the threat from Iran had become “untenable” despite “repeated efforts to achieve a diplomatic solution.” He acknowledged it was “not possible” to know the full scope or duration of the operation.
Congressional critics moved swiftly. In the Senate, Tim Kaine of Virginia and Rand Paul of Kentucky — an unlikely bipartisan pair — forced a vote on a war powers resolution that would have required Trump to cease military operations unless Congress formally authorized them. The measure failed 47-53, largely along party lines. Paul was the only Republican to support it; John Fetterman of Pennsylvania was the only Democrat to oppose it.
“We shouldn’t be acting like this is business as usual. This is as serious as it gets. This is war and peace.” — Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), after classified briefing on the Iran operation
The House vote, forced to the floor by Democrat Ro Khanna of California and Republican Thomas Massie of Kentucky over the objections of Speaker Mike Johnson, was even tighter: 212-219. Two Republicans — Massie and Warren Davidson of Ohio, a former Army Ranger — joined most Democrats in favor. Four Democrats crossed to vote against it. Massie offered perhaps the sharpest critique from his own party, telling colleagues the conflict was not “America First” and that the administration could not give a straight answer for why it launched what he called a preemptive war.
The administration has offered a constellation of rationales. Trump’s video statement cited the 1979 hostage crisis, Iran’s support for proxy groups, its killing of protesters, and its alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that 40,000 U.S. service members were within missile range of Iran. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth dismissed critics with characteristic bluntness, declaring there would be no “stupid rules of engagement, no nation building quagmire, no democracy building exercise, no politically correct wars.” He later acknowledged the war could last eight weeks — double the president’s initial four-to-five-week estimate.
VIII. The New Hampshire Angle
For the Granite State, the conflict is not an abstraction playing out on cable news. It is arriving in the form of rising gasoline prices, deployment anxieties, and a congressional delegation sharply divided from the White House on the constitutional legitimacy of the war.
At the Pump
New England gas prices have been climbing steadily since the strikes began. The national average jumped from $2.92 at the time of Trump’s State of the Union address to $3.41 by Saturday — a 17-percent increase in less than two weeks. Diesel, which drives the cost of virtually every consumer good that arrives by truck, surged even more dramatically, hitting $4.51 nationally. In the neighboring Massachusetts market, AAA reported overnight increases of six cents per gallon on a single day in early March, with analysts warning of another 10- to 25-cent increase in the near term if the conflict does not de-escalate. Drivers commuting between New Hampshire and neighboring states are already feeling the squeeze.
The economic threat extends well beyond the pump. Economists warn that if oil prices sustain above $90 per barrel — which they reached on Friday — inflation will be pushed higher, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve into a difficult position between rate hikes to control prices and the political pressure from Trump to lower borrowing costs. JPMorgan has warned Brent crude could hit $120 per barrel if the conflict lasts beyond three weeks, and Deutsche Bank projects prices nearing $200 if Iran successfully mines the Strait of Hormuz.
The Delegation Responds
New Hampshire’s all-Democratic congressional delegation has been unified in its criticism of the president’s decision to bypass Congress. In a statement released within hours of the first strikes, Senator Jeanne Shaheen called the Iranian government “dangerous and destabilizing” but said Trump lacked a “clear strategy for yet another open-ended war.” Senator Maggie Hassan criticized the administration for striking without consulting Congress. Representative Maggie Goodlander called giving the president “a blank check to wage war” a “dangerous dereliction” of constitutional duty. Representative Chris Pappas demanded the administration present its plan to Congress.
In an interview with NHPR, Shaheen elaborated on her concerns: the administration had no plan for evacuating the estimated one million Americans across the 14 Middle Eastern countries it had urged them to leave, there was no clear endgame, and the costs of the war would compound the affordability crisis already squeezing New Hampshire families on housing, groceries, child care, and energy. Shaheen also confirmed that the New Hampshire National Guard has been deployed, though the location has not been publicly disclosed.
“We’re seeing gas prices go up dramatically. We’ll see energy prices go up and people are struggling still to afford groceries, housing, child care, all of the things that people need to be comfortable living and supporting their families.” — Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), interview with NHPR, March 5, 2026
The war is also shaping the race for Shaheen’s seat, as she is retiring. Pappas, running for the Senate, has made war powers and congressional oversight central to his message. Republican candidate and former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown has backed the operation, emphasizing the need to stop Iran’s nuclear program. Former Senator John E. Sununu has said the military option should remain on the table but cautioned against boots on the ground.
IX. The Wider War: A Region in Flames
The conflict has metastasized well beyond Iran’s borders. Hezbollah re-entered the war on March 2, launching missiles into northern Israel and prompting a new round of Israeli strikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon — despite the 2024 ceasefire and the Lebanese government’s attempts to disarm the militant group. In a dramatic reversal, the Lebanese government announced it would ban Hezbollah’s military activities and demand the group surrender all weapons to the state. Whether it has the capacity to enforce that order remains an open question.
Iran’s retaliatory strikes have hit virtually every Gulf state hosting U.S. forces. The Qatari Ministry of Defense confirmed ballistic missiles struck the Al Udeid Air Base. Saudi Arabia reported intercepting drones near Riyadh and the massive Shaybah oil field. Dubai’s international airport came under drone attack multiple times. Bahrain’s Juffair naval base, home to the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, was struck repeatedly. Qatar shut down all LNG production after drone attacks on its Ras Laffan and Mesaieed industrial facilities — pulling roughly 20 percent of global LNG supply offline. Kuwait began cutting oil production after running out of storage capacity for crude that could not be shipped through the closed Strait.
Russia has reportedly provided Iran with intelligence on U.S. military positions, according to U.S. officials speaking to the Associated Press. The Kremlin has publicly noted that the war has caused “significant increased demand” for Russian energy products. Iran’s deputy foreign minister warned European nations they would become “legitimate targets” if they joined the U.S. and Israeli campaign.
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian delivered a remarkable televised address, apologizing to neighboring Gulf states for the strikes and promising not to target them — unless their territory continued to be used to attack Iran. Fresh explosions in Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE followed within hours.
X. Where This Goes: The Questions That Remain
As this report is filed, the war shows no signs of abating. Trump has demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” Tehran’s top security official, Ali Larijani, has vowed Iran will “not negotiate” with the United States. The administration has not ruled out ground troops. The president has said he must be involved in choosing Iran’s next leader — a statement that even House Speaker Mike Johnson, who opposes the war powers resolution, has tried to distance from, insisting America is not in “the nation-building business.”
The questions confronting policymakers, military strategists, and ordinary citizens are enormous. Among them:
What is the endgame? The administration has described its goals in shifting terms — from destroying Iran’s nuclear program (which Trump said was “obliterated” in 2025) to regime change to unconditional surrender. U.S. intelligence assessments prior to the strikes indicated that Iran’s alleged long-range missile capabilities, cited by the administration as a justification, would not materialize before 2035. Critics have drawn explicit comparisons to the false WMD claims that preceded the Iraq War.
Can Iran sustain its retaliation? The IRGC has claimed attacks on 27 U.S. bases. But with its navy destroyed, its air force and radar systems reportedly neutralized, and its command structure decapitated, Iran’s ability to sustain a prolonged campaign is uncertain. The quicker pace of Iran’s initial response compared to the Twelve-Day War, however, suggests its military adapted its command structure after the 2025 conflict.
How long can the global economy absorb this shock? Goldman Sachs estimates oil will reach $100 per barrel if Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue for five weeks. Roughly 9 million barrels per day are currently offline. Qatar’s energy minister has warned oil could hit $150. For New Hampshire households already stretched by inflation and housing costs, the prospect of $5 gasoline and spiking heating costs heading into spring is not hypothetical — it is the trend line.
What happens inside Iran? The regime is weakened but not collapsed. Khamenei is dead, but the institutional apparatus of the Islamic Republic — the Guardian Council, the judiciary, the IRGC — remains intact if battered. A power vacuum in a nuclear-threshold state with 88 million people is one of the most dangerous scenarios in modern geopolitics. JPMorgan’s commodities team has warned that institutional breakdown and civil war in Iran would pose an even greater risk to oil supplies than the current military conflict.
For the people of New Hampshire and the nation, the choices made in the coming days and weeks will reverberate for years. The last time the United States launched a war to change a regime in the Middle East, it lasted two decades.
Whether this one will be different is the question on which everything now turns.
Sources: This report draws on reporting from NHPR, CNN, NBC News, CBS News, NPR, PBS NewsHour, Al Jazeera, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, France 24, the UK House of Commons Library, the Foreign Policy Research Institute, Amnesty International, the United Nations Human Rights Council, Britannica, CNBC, Bloomberg, Oxford Economics, Chatham House, Iran International, HRANA, GasBuddy, AAA, and official statements from U.S. Central Command, the White House, the offices of Sen. Shaheen, Sen. Hassan, Rep. Goodlander, and Rep. Pappas. All casualty and economic figures are as reported by these sources and are subject to revision as events continue to develop. Death toll figures from the January 2026 protests in Iran remain disputed and unverifiable due to the communications blackout; we have presented the range of estimates from multiple sources.
Granite State Report is an independent New Hampshire political news outlet. GSR receives no government funding and is supported entirely by its readers.
