With Jeanne Shaheen retiring after nearly two decades, a once-in-a-generation contest is reshaping New Hampshire politics — and both parties see a path to victory.
By Granite State Report
Concord, N.H. – For the first time since 1990, New Hampshire’s Class II U.S. Senate seat is wide open. Senator Jeanne Shaheen, who announced her retirement in March 2025 after three terms and nearly two decades in the Senate, leaves behind a vacancy that has attracted a deep field of candidates on both sides — and the attention of national party strategists who view the Granite State as a potential tipping point for Senate control in 2026.
This is the most consequential federal race in New Hampshire in a generation. Here is where things stand.
The Democratic Side: Pappas Consolidates Early
Representative Chris Pappas, who has held New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District since 2019, emerged early as the Democratic frontrunner. He launched his campaign in April 2025 and has since consolidated significant institutional support. Shaheen herself has endorsed him, as have Representative Maggie Goodlander and former Representative Annie Kuster — both of whom were seen as potential candidates before deciding against a run.
Pappas has demonstrated fundraising strength to match his endorsement advantages. Federal Election Commission filings show he raised $1.8 million in the third quarter of 2025 alone and entered October with $2.6 million in the bank. His campaign has emphasized affordability, housing costs, and a pragmatic centrism aimed at retaining independent voters in a state where the unaffiliated electorate is the single largest voting bloc.
He does face a primary challenge from Karishma Manzur, a scientist and member of the New Hampshire Democratic Party Rules Committee who has positioned herself as a progressive alternative. However, polling has consistently shown Pappas with a commanding lead among likely Democratic primary voters.
The Republican Primary: A Sununu-Brown Clash With National Implications
The Republican contest has become a proxy battle for the identity of the party itself. Two former U.S. senators — John E. Sununu and Scott Brown — are competing for the nomination, and the differences between them reflect a broader tension within the GOP between establishment conservatism and Trump-aligned populism.
John E. Sununu, who represented New Hampshire in the Senate from 2003 to 2009 before losing to Shaheen in their 2008 rematch, announced his comeback bid in October 2025. The former senator’s message has centered on institutional competence and bipartisan temperament. The National Republican Senatorial Committee, chaired by Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, quickly threw its support behind Sununu — a significant institutional advantage.
Sununu carries the weight of a formidable political dynasty. His father, John H. Sununu, served as New Hampshire governor and White House chief of staff under President George H.W. Bush. His brother, Chris Sununu, served as governor for eight years before stepping aside in 2024 — and was himself widely courted for the Senate seat before declining to run.
But the former senator also carries political vulnerabilities within a Republican primary electorate where loyalty to former President Donald Trump remains a powerful litmus test. John E. Sununu supported John Kasich in the 2016 presidential primary and backed Nikki Haley’s challenge to Trump in 2024. The day before the 2024 New Hampshire primary, he published an opinion piece calling Trump a “loser” — a line that his primary opponent has used repeatedly.
That opponent, Scott Brown, has leaned into his alignment with Trump. Brown, who represented Massachusetts in the U.S. Senate from 2010 to 2013 before moving to New Hampshire and narrowly losing to Shaheen in 2014, later served as Trump’s ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa. He entered the race in June 2025 and reported raising roughly $1.2 million in his first full fundraising quarter, entering October with approximately $803,000 on hand.
Key Context: Republicans have not won a U.S. Senate race in New Hampshire since 2010, when Kelly Ayotte defeated Paul Hodes. The state’s entire current congressional delegation is Democratic, even as Republicans control the governorship, both chambers of the state legislature, and a majority on the Executive Council.
What the Polls Show
The available polling paints a consistent, if early, picture. A January 2026 University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll found Sununu leading Brown for the Republican nomination, with Pappas the clear favorite among Democrats. In hypothetical general election matchups, Pappas led both Sununu and Brown — though by different margins.
A separate NHJournal/Praecones Analytica survey conducted around the same time found Pappas ahead of Brown by 18 points (46 percent to 28 percent) and ahead of Sununu by a tighter margin of 6 points (42 percent to 36 percent), with roughly a quarter of respondents undecided in each scenario.
The race ratings from major nonpartisan forecasters reflect a narrow Democratic advantage. As of early 2026, the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate the race as Lean Democratic, while Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales classifies it as Tilt Democratic — a slightly more competitive assessment.
The Issues Driving Voters
Polling data from the NHJournal/Praecones Analytica survey highlights what Granite Staters say matters most: 30 percent of respondents named the cost of groceries and everyday basics as their top issue, followed by housing costs at 25 percent and property taxes at 18 percent. This affordability-centered electorate presents both an opportunity and a challenge for every candidate in the race.
Housing, in particular, has dominated the legislative session in Concord and has been a consistent top concern in UNH Granite State Polls dating back to early 2025. Meanwhile, the political dynamics of the Trump administration’s policies — from immigration enforcement to federal funding cuts — continue to shape voter attitudes. A recent poll found Trump’s approval rating in New Hampshire at 32 percent, a significant headwind for Republican candidates who must navigate between motivating the party base and appealing to the state’s fiercely independent general electorate.
Why This Race Matters Beyond New Hampshire
The stakes extend well beyond the Granite State. Democrats currently need a net gain of four seats to recapture the Senate majority — a tall order that requires not only defending every vulnerable seat but also picking off at least two Republican-held seats in red-leaning states. Losing Shaheen’s seat would raise that threshold even further, making New Hampshire a linchpin in the national calculus.
Republicans, for their part, see the open seat as one of their best pickup opportunities. With Shaheen no longer on the ballot, the built-in incumbency advantage that helped Democrats hold this seat through three cycles has evaporated. The NRSC’s early endorsement of John E. Sununu signals that national Republicans view the seat as genuinely competitive — and worth a significant investment.
With primary elections scheduled for September 8, 2026, and the general election on November 3, the months ahead will determine whether this race tightens into the kind of New Hampshire nail-biter the state is famous for — or whether one side builds an early, durable advantage. Either way, Granite Staters will be making a choice that reverberates far beyond their borders.
This story will be updated as the race develops.
Sources & References
- UNH Survey Center, “Sununu, Pappas Frontrunners in 2026 NH Senate Race; Ayotte Favored for Re-Election as Governor,” January 21, 2026. scholars.unh.edu
- UNH Survey Center, “Early Look at 2026 NH Races,” September 29, 2025. scholars.unh.edu
- Newsweek, “Republicans’ Chances of Flipping New Hampshire Senate Seat — New Poll” (NHJournal/Praecones Analytica survey), January 5, 2026. newsweek.com
- NBC News, “GOP former Sen. John Sununu announces run for Senate in New Hampshire,” October 22, 2025. nbcnews.com
- Roll Call, “John Sununu launches Senate comeback bid in New Hampshire,” October 22, 2025. rollcall.com
- Fox News, “Former GOP Senator emerges from private sector with new mission,” October 22, 2025. foxnews.com
- Inside Elections, “New Hampshire Senate: Sununu Bid Boosts Republican Chances.” insideelections.com
- Ballotpedia, “United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2026.” ballotpedia.org
- Cook Political Report, “NH Senate 2026.” cookpolitical.com
- New Hampshire Bulletin, “Speculation over New Hampshire’s 2026 Senate race erupts after Shaheen leaves it wide open,” April 2, 2025. newhampshirebulletin.com
- Citizens Count, “2026 US Senate Primary.” citizenscount.org
- Wikipedia, “2026 United States Senate election in New Hampshire.” wikipedia.org
- Federal Election Commission, “2026 Election — United States Senate, New Hampshire.” fec.gov
