By Granite State Report
Executive Summary (TL;DR)
The big national pressures in 2025—sticky inflation, record-high electricity prices in New England, stubbornly expensive health insurance, a still-severe housing shortage, an aging workforce, and the aftershocks of the FAFSA fiasco—show up in New Hampshire in concrete, household-level ways: historically tight housing inventory and rising rents, high-but-cooling energy burdens, health premiums brushing $27,000 for family coverage, a shrinking K-12 population funded disproportionately by local property taxes, and a labor market that’s short on workers but long on openings. The bright spots: overdose deaths have fallen sharply, violent crime is low by national standards, population is growing again on the strength of in-migration, and $196.5 million in federal broadband funds is finally being put to work to reach the last unserved homes. Policy and business choices now—zoning, energy buildout, childcare capacity, and cost control in health care—will determine whether New Hampshire remains competitive and livable over the next decade. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
1) Prices, paychecks, and the “it still feels expensive” economy
Where the U.S. stands: The latest CPI shows year-over-year inflation of about 3% in September 2025—down from the pandemic highs but still above the Fed’s 2% target. Gasoline ticked up; rent inflation has cooled but remains a drag. Net: prices aren’t spiking anymore, but they’re not going back to 2019 either. Households feel that gap. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
How that hits New Hampshire: In New England, residential electricity prices set new highs this summer (NH average ~24.5¢/kWh in Aug. 2025). That’s materially above U.S. averages and feeds into everything from small-business overhead to household utility budgets. ISO-NE expects winter reliability to be manageable, but cold snaps and gas dependence still create risk. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
Bottom line: Inflation’s no longer a five-alarm fire, but it’s still a slow burn on Granite State budgets—especially when paired with energy and housing costs. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
2) Housing: still the choke point
If you want one metric that explains New Hampshire’s affordability angst, it’s this: the median single-family sale price climbed from roughly $515k in 2024 to about $565k by June 2025—on top of a multi-year surge since 2019. Rental markets remain tight; statewide vacancy rates far below a balanced 5% keep rents elevated. (New Hampshire Housing)
New Hampshire Housing and NHFPI both flag the structural shortages: low inventory (months of supply well below balanced), underbuilding, and zoning constraints—all amplified by in-migration. The net result: buyers need well over the state’s median income to avoid being cost-burdened, and more than half of renters pay >30% of income on housing. (New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute)
Granular affordability snapshots:
- Rents: FY2025 HUD fair-market rents put a 2-bedroom average at ~$1,738; high-cost border metros (e.g., Rockingham County in the Boston MSA) exceed $2,700 for a 2-bedroom. Many New Hampshire renters must earn $27/hour to comfortably afford a 1-bedroom. (RentData)
- Vacancy: New Hampshire’s rental vacancy rate has hovered well below “balanced” for years, reinforcing price pressure. (FRED)
Why this is a U.S. story, not just an NH one: Pandemic-era migration, millennial household formation, and a decade of underbuilding created shortages nationwide; New Hampshire’s proximity to Boston and lack of broad-based taxes pull demand north across the border. Actionable lever: modernize zoning, add duplexes/ADUs, expand infrastructure in growth nodes, and fast-track workforce housing projects—policies discussed openly by NH’s fiscal analysts. (New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute)
3) Health care: the premium squeeze
Nationally, employer family premiums climbed another 6% in 2025 to $26,993, with workers paying about $6,850 of that—driven in part by prescription drugs (GLP-1s) and utilization. This is now a five-year 26% run-up—way faster than most take-home pay. (KFF)
In New Hampshire, that national trend lands hard: small firms, nonprofits, and municipalities report budget strain as premiums absorb wage-growth headroom. Deductibles remain widespread. When you combine high housing costs + high health premiums, you get the affordability cliff NHFPI has quantified (see section 8). (KFF)
4) Energy and the grid: high prices, new dynamics
ISO-New England says the 2024-25 winter is manageable under expected conditions, with contingency tools for extreme cold. New England also saw record-low midday grid demand this spring when behind-the-meter solar spiked—evidence that the energy system is changing fast. Still, NH households pay among the nation’s higher retail electricity rates, and winter gas price volatility remains a risk until more non-gas capacity is online. (ISO New England)
Regional buildout: Massachusetts and Rhode Island moved forward with 2.9 GW of offshore wind in late 2024; while not NH-anchored, regional power markets and transmission affect NH bills. Long-term, more renewables and storage, plus targeted transmission, are core to price stability. (Reuters)
5) Crime and public safety: facts beat the noise
National FBI data show violent crime fell ~4.5% in 2024, homicides down ~15%, and property crime down ~8%. Not the apocalypse you’ve heard on cable. New Hampshire, meanwhile, stays near the lowest violent-crime rates in the country (around 110 per 100,000 in 2024). This matters for recruitment, tourism, and in-migration narratives. (Federal Bureau of Investigation)
Takeaway: Safety remains a durable NH advantage—an asset to defend with data-driven prevention (mental health, youth supports), not panic legislation. (Federal Bureau of Investigation)
6) Opioids and overdose: real progress, keep your foot on the gas
After a brutal decade, U.S. overdose deaths dropped nearly 27% in 2024 (provisional). New Hampshire was among the biggest decliners—down 35%+—with the lowest total in a decade in 2024 (est. ~228). Credit: widespread naloxone, treatment access, and harm-reduction strategies. The job isn’t done—fentanyl is still unforgiving—but the data prove policy and community action save lives. (CDC)
Granite State data pipelines (OCME, DHHS DMI) have improved situational awareness; keep funding them, and don’t defund the tools that are working. (NH DHHS)
7) Schools, FAFSA fallout, and who pays
Two realities are colliding:
- Enrollment is falling—NH saw one of the nation’s sharper year-over-year drops heading into 2023-24.
- Local taxpayers carry the load—NH relies more than any other state on local property taxes to fund K-12, even as the student population shrinks and per-pupil spending rises. (New Hampshire Public Radio)
On top of that, the botched 2024 FAFSA rollout hit NH students and colleges hard—late awards, enrollment uncertainty, and ongoing friction into the 2024-25 year despite a statutory fix requiring Oct. 1 launches going forward. That uncertainty risks pushing marginal students to work more, borrow more, or walk away, with long-term workforce consequences. (Concord Monitor)
What’s practical for NH now: stabilize FAFSA counseling pipelines at the district level, expand dual-enrollment & skills programs, and push for a sustainable state share of K-12 funding to reduce the seesaw on property taxpayers. (New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute)
8) The affordability ledger: NHFPI’s cold math
The New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute’s new analysis is blunt: compared to 2005 (inflation-adjusted), a median-income family in New Hampshire has roughly $17,000 less left after essentials like housing, childcare, and health care. Translation: families are “working hard and falling behind.” This isn’t about lattes; it’s a structural price-to-income mismatch. (New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute)
- Housing: Median buyers need ~$157k household income to avoid being cost-burdened on a median-priced home—well above median household income. (New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute)
- Childcare: Two kids can run ~30% of median income—a workforce killer when employers need people. (The Washington Post)
- Health care: Premiums + deductibles rising faster than pay (see Section 3). (KFF)
Reality check: Without targeted supply-side fixes (housing & childcare capacity) and demand-side relief (smart subsidies and cost controls), the math won’t improve on its own. (New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute)
9) Demographics, migration, and the labor market
NH’s population grew to ~1.409 million in 2024, almost entirely from net in-migration. Median age sits in the low-40s—among the nation’s oldest—so every worker we attract matters. The job market still shows more openings than job-seekers (unemployed per opening ~0.7 in mid-2025), yet housing and childcare bottlenecks keep would-be workers on the sidelines. (Carsey School)
Implication: If NH wants to keep winning the migration sweepstakes, it has to house new residents, connect them (broadband), and support families (childcare). Otherwise, they’ll commute here, not live here. (NH Economy)
10) Broadband: finally reaching the last mile
New Hampshire has $196.5 million in BEAD funding approved to build out high-speed internet. The draft final plan targets underserved locations with a preference for future-proof fiber where feasible, and satellite/wireless fills in hard-to-reach pockets. Execution—poles, permits, and procurement—is the make-or-break. (NH Economy)
Why it matters locally: Broadband is basic infrastructure for small manufacturers, remote workers, farms using precision tech, and students. This is one of the rare levers that can lift rural incomes and reduce geographic inequality—if the build stays on schedule. (NTIA)
11) Taxes and the fiscal picture
As of January 1, 2025, New Hampshire repealed the Interest & Dividends tax, reinforcing the state’s no-broad-income-tax identity (and no general sales tax). The flip side is well known: heavy reliance on property taxes to fund essentials, including schools. That model magnifies the affordability problem in towns with rising home values and shrinking student bases. (NHDRA)
Translation: The tax brand brings people and capital; the property-tax math can push families out unless housing supply and state aid keep pace with reality. (New Hampshire Bulletin)
12) What New Hampshire should do next (practical, not performative)
A. Unlock housing at scale
- Legalize missing-middle (duplexes/ADUs by right in serviced areas), modernize lot sizes, and set predictable, fast timelines for workforce housing approvals. Tie state infrastructure dollars to zoning that actually allows homes. (New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute)
- Accelerate public-private partnerships to build mixed-income rentals in job centers; protect deeply affordable units via LIHTC plus local gap financing. (National Low Income Housing Coalition)
B. Treat childcare like workforce infrastructure
- Expand supply via facility grants and workforce stipends tied to quality; target deserts near hospitals, schools, and industrial parks. (This pays back in labor force participation.) (New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute)
C. Bend the health-cost curve
- Leverage state employee plan purchasing to push site-neutral payments, reference pricing, and transparent PBM contracts; expand primary care access and behavioral health to reduce downstream cost. The goal: make next year’s KFF chart the first flat one in a decade. (KFF)
D. Keep overdose deaths falling
- Stay the course on naloxone saturation, meds-for-opioid-use-disorder access, xylazine testing, and fentanyl test strips; maintain DMI and OCME analytics so response stays real-time. (CDC)
E. Lock in broadband gains
- Watch the BEAD contracting calendar like a hawk; pre-clear pole access and trench-sharing; require open-access where publicly subsidized to keep prices competitive in rural zones. (NH Economy)
F. Stabilize the education finance model
- Set a predictable state share that reduces the whiplash on local property taxpayers as enrollment ebbs; fund FAFSA navigators in every district until the pipeline is rebuilt. (New Hampshire Bulletin)
13) Five myths to retire (and what the data actually say)
- “Inflation is back to normal, so families are fine.”
Nope. Price levels remain much higher than 2019; electricity and health premiums compound the pain. (Bureau of Labor Statistics) - “We can police our way out of addiction.”
No. The biggest drop in deaths came from treatment and harm-reduction alongside enforcement. Keep funding what works. (CDC) - “NH housing is expensive because of outsiders.”
Partial truth at best. Demand matters, but rules that block duplexes/ADUs and slow approvals are on us. Fix supply. (New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute) - “Crime is spiraling.”
Not in the data. Violent crime fell nationwide in 2024, and NH remains among the safest states. (AP News) - “Broadband is done.”
No. The checks are approved; the hard part—construction and coordination—starts now. (NTIA)
14) What to watch in the next 12 months
- Electricity rates: Whether new capacity and milder winters stop the upward creep for New England ratepayers. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
- Health premiums (2026 quotes): Early signs point to another uptick unless employers/insurers change the playbook on drugs and unit prices. (Reuters)
- Permitting & zoning: Do state and local reforms meaningfully increase the number of buildable lots and multifamily approvals? (New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute)
- BEAD milestones: Subgrantee selections, shovel-ready projects, and first customers lit up. (NTIA)
- Overdose mortality: Can NH sustain the post-2023 declines? Maintain access, don’t declare premature victory. (CDC)
15) Sources & references (selected)
- Inflation & prices: U.S. CPI overview and Northeast/Boston CPI releases, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Electricity: EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 5.6.A (prices by state, Aug. 2025); ISO-NE winter outlook and operations notes; ISO-NE record-low daytime demand (rooftop solar). (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
- Health premiums: KFF 2025 Employer Health Benefits Survey; Reuters coverage. (KFF)
- Housing (NH): NH Housing 2024 Residential Rental Cost Survey; NH Housing FY25 Annual Report (median prices); NHFPI analyses on housing shortage and affordability. (New Hampshire Housing)
- Rents & vacancy: HUD/NLIHC “Out of Reach” context via NHPR; FMR and vacancy data via RentData and FRED. (New Hampshire Public Radio)
- Crime: FBI 2024 national report; AP/Stateline coverage; USAFacts state profile. (Federal Bureau of Investigation)
- Overdose: CDC provisional 2024 decline; NH OCME updates; DHHS DMI; local coverage confirming decade-low deaths. (CDC)
- Demographics & labor: UNH Carsey population brief (2024 estimates); BLS JOLTS for NH; NHES labor market dashboards. (Carsey School)
- Broadband: NH Office of Broadband (BEAD); NTIA progress dashboard; NH’s draft final proposal. (NH Economy)
- Taxes: NH DRA on I&D repeal; DRA sales tax FAQ. (NHDRA)
- Affordability (integrated): NHFPI “Affordability Eroded” and conference materials; NHPR/CT Public coverage. (New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute)
16) The frank verdict
New Hampshire’s fundamentals—safety, natural assets, no broad income or sales tax, and an innovation-friendly culture—are strong. But the state is now in a knife fight for talent and families, and housing + childcare + health costs are the blade’s edge. You can’t market your way out of math. Build the units, grow childcare capacity, attack health costs with spine, finish broadband, and steady the school finance model. Do that, and New Hampshire won’t just tread water in a 3% inflation world—it’ll regain the margin that made the Granite State the Northeast’s outlier for opportunity.
Appendix: Handy data links for follow-up reporting
- BLS CPI home & Northeast tables (for updates). (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- EIA price table (bookmark for monthly rate checks). (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
- KFF Employer Health Benefits Survey (annual). (KFF)
- NH Housing publications (rents, vacancy, affordability). (New Hampshire Housing)
- NTIA BEAD dashboard (milestones & approvals). (NTIA)
- FBI Crime Data Explorer/National releases. (Federal Bureau of Investigation)
