New Hampshire Economy: 2025 Snapshot & Outlook
By Granite State Report
Executive summary
New Hampshire’s economy remains small but sturdy: high household incomes, a tight labor market, strong advanced manufacturing and tech clusters, and vibrant exports. The flip side is costly housing and child‑care bottlenecks that cap growth and strain families. On balance, the state heads into 2026 with stable fundamentals but clear capacity constraints.
By the numbers (latest available)
- Gross State Product (GSP): $121.2 billion in 2024. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
- Real GDP trend: BEA’s most recent release shows state GDP increased in Q2 2025 (state detail in interactive tables; series updated Sept. 26, 2025). FRED’s New Hampshire real GDP series runs through Q2 2025. (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
- Unemployment rate: 3.0% (Aug 2025, seasonally adjusted); total nonfarm employment 706,300. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Per‑capita personal income: $82,878 (2024). (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
- Exports of goods: $7.1 billion (2024); top markets span 160+ countries, with 2025 YTD leaders including Canada and Germany. (NH Economy)
- Electricity prices (retail): Residential 22.79¢/kWh; all‑sector 20.75¢/kWh (July 2025). (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
- Taxes: No general sales tax and no tax on wage income; the Interest & Dividends tax was repealed effective Jan 1, 2025. Business Profits Tax (BPT) 7.5% (periods ending on/after 12/31/2023). (NH Revenue Administration)
- Business tax competitiveness: #6 overall on Tax Foundation’s 2025 State Tax Competitiveness Index. (Tax Foundation)
- Housing prices: Statewide median sales price $550,000 in Aug 2025 (single‑family), with 2025 YTD median at $540,000. (FastStats)
What drives growth
Advanced manufacturing and tech. State analysis counts ~42,000 jobs and 1,100+ businesses in advanced manufacturing, with growth outpacing regional and national trends and above‑average wages. Manufacturing contributes billions to GSP and remains a higher‑than‑average share of state employment. (NH Economy)
Healthcare, education, and professional services. Over the last several years, health care and social assistance absorbed job losses elsewhere and have been a primary engine of employment gains. Professional and technical services also remain elevated, supported by remote and hybrid work. (New Hampshire Employment Security)
Exports and small‑firm dynamism. Goods exports hit $7.1 billion in 2024, led by high‑value categories (e.g., aircraft parts, medical/biotech, electronics). Many exporters are smaller firms that sell into Canada, Europe, and the Middle East. (NH Economy)
Labor market & demographics
Tight but easing. The unemployment rate ticked to 3.0% in August and payroll growth has flattened, suggesting labor demand and supply are moving toward balance after the 2021–2023 hiring surge. Total nonfarm jobs were 706,300 in August 2025. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Population growth via in‑migration. New Hampshire’s 2024 population estimate was ~1.409 million (up ~6,800 from 2023), with domestic in‑migration the main driver since the pandemic. Growth slowed in 2024 versus prior years but remains positive. (Carsey School)
A highly educated workforce. ACS data show the share of adults with a bachelor’s degree or higher around the low‑40% range, above U.S. average—an asset for high‑productivity sectors. (Data Census)
Costs, competitiveness & taxes
Cost of living. BEA’s Regional Price Parities indicate New Hampshire’s overall price level sits slightly above the national average—well below Massachusetts but higher than many states. (FRED)
Energy. Retail electricity prices are high by U.S. standards but in line with New England peers; July 2025 average residential price 22.79¢/kWh. ISO‑NE market dynamics (natural gas price exposure, transmission) contribute to variability, though Seabrook’s nuclear output helps stabilize wholesale supply. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
Tax climate. With no broad‑based sales tax or tax on wage income—and the Interest & Dividends tax repealed in 2025—New Hampshire ranks #6 nationally for tax competitiveness. Businesses still face the BPT (7.5%) and BET, and property taxes are comparatively high, but overall structure remains attractive. (NH Revenue Administration)
Housing: the growth cap
Prices remain elevated. The statewide median single‑family sale price reached $550,000 in Aug 2025; year‑to‑date median was $540,000, keeping affordability stretched. (FastStats)
Very tight rental market. New Hampshire Housing identifies ~5% vacancy as “balanced.” Surveys show two‑bedroom apartment vacancy was 0.6% (early 2023)—symptomatic of the persistent shortage—and analyses continue to flag under‑supply through 2024–2025. (New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute)
Policy signal. Local zoning reforms, infrastructure upgrades, and permitting streamlining are recurring recommendations from business and housing groups as the constraint increasingly binds growth. (NH Business Review)
Child care & labor‑force participation
The child‑care shortage depresses workforce participation and business productivity. NHFPI estimates annual business losses up to $56 million from reduced hours/turnover tied to care gaps; sector employment in early education fell ~8% in 2024 and tuition levels remain high. (New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute)
Trade & international exposure
Exports are broad‑based and high value—aircraft parts, medical/biotech products, electronics, machine tools—supporting thousands of jobs and injecting outside demand into the small state economy. State export value totaled $7.1 billion in 2024 and remains on pace in 2025 YTD. (NH Economy)
Outlook into 2026
- Baseline: Modest real growth, with continued strength in advanced manufacturing, professional services, and health care; labor market cools but stays tight by national standards. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Upside: Faster housing production; durable in‑migration from higher‑cost neighbors; export tailwinds in aerospace/biopharma/tooling. (NH Economy)
- Risks: Housing and child‑care constraints, energy costs, slowing national demand, and demographic headwinds (aging workforce). (New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute)
What to watch
- GDP & income: BEA’s quarterly GDP by state and personal income updates (latest Q2 2025). (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
- Jobs & unemployment: BLS Economy at a Glance: New Hampshire for monthly labor force and payrolls. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Housing: NH REALTORS monthly indicators and New Hampshire Housing dashboards for prices, inventory, and rents. (FastStats)
- Exports: Office of International Commerce monthly/state‑level updates. (NH Economy)
- Energy: EIA Electric Power Monthly for retail prices; ISO‑NE market reports for wholesale dynamics. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
Further watching
- WMUR – NH’s Business: “Headwinds Hit the New Hampshire Economy” (Sept. 2025) — concise on current pressures and what to expect next.
- NH Fiscal Policy Institute – Examining the State Budget 2025 (Feb–Jun 2025) — three‑part series on fiscal choices shaping the economy.
- Greater Concord Chamber of Commerce – 2025 Economic Outlook Forum (Feb 2025) — local business perspective on the year’s macro and state trends.
- New Hampshire Housing Market Updates (Summer–Fall 2025) — practitioner walk‑throughs of pricing, inventory, and demand using NHAR data.
August 2025 update:
- NH Department of Business & Economic Affairs (Channel) — trade missions, sector spotlights, and small‑business resources.
https://www.youtube.com/NHeconomy (YouTube)
Sources & methodology
This brief draws primarily on BEA (GDP/personal income), BLS (LAUS, CES, QCEW), New Hampshire Employment Security (ELMI) publications, NH Office of International Commerce export statistics, EIA electricity data, ISO‑NE market reports, NH REALTORS monthly indicators, NH Housing dashboards and NHFPI research. Key references include: BEA Q2 2025 state GDP release (Sept 26, 2025) and BEARFACTS portal; BLS Economy‑at‑a‑Glance (data extracted Oct 1, 2025); EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 5.6.A (Sept 23, 2025); Tax Foundation 2025 State Tax Competitiveness Index; NH Department of Revenue Administration guidance on the 2025 repeal of the Interest & Dividends tax; NHAR/ShowingTime August 2025 statewide indicators. (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
Bottom line
New Hampshire continues to punch above its weight in innovation‑heavy manufacturing and services, supported by a favorable tax structure and steady in‑migration. The ceiling is set by housing and care capacity. If policymakers and localities can unlock more supply—while keeping an eye on energy costs—the state can convert its strong fundamentals into broader affordability and sustained growth.
